A year after the COVID-19 pandemic upended our lives, new signs of recovery give cause for optimism about the future.
The pandemic has affected almost every industry, and some are poised to see strong growth as things continue to improve.
Businesses across the US have found innovative ways to serve customers, keep employees working, and pay rent.
"We faced tougher problems and the American miracle, the American magic has always prevailed, and it will do so again," Warren Buffet said back in May. "Bet on America."
Indeed, some of the most successful startups were launched in the depths of a recession, including Airbnb, Venmo, Pinterest, and WhatsApp.
There's also plenty of opportunity to run a resilient business that adds value to the community, a study from MIT found.
And half of Americans surveyed by Lending Tree want more local businesses like restaurants, coffee shops, and grocery stores in their communities.
Whatever kind of business you start, adaptability and innovation will be essential.
Insider has covered companies big and small as they've navigated shutdowns, government loans, employee safety, and preparing to reopen.
Based on our reporting, conversations with experts, and a review of the research, here is a list of businesses we expect will thrive in America's economic recovery.
We've talked to experts and leaders across industries, and through these conversations and analyses, we've determined an unranked list of businesses that we expect will shape our economic recovery.
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Coffee shops
One in four Americans want more coffee shops in their local communities, findings that are echoed by the experience of Peter Giuliano, Chief Research Officer for the Specialty Coffee Association.
Giuliano told Insider that local cafe owners' strong community ties have helped them successfully adapt their business during the pandemic.
"Their core regulars got really committed to stay engaged with the shop," he said.
In addition, independent coffee shops were able to increase the average transaction by 25% from March to April, in part by offering more grocery items and home brewing supplies.
Fitness equipment and subscriptions
Getting a regular workout is hard enough before you add in social distancing.
Even so, many customers are learning that exercising at home can be cheaper, safer, and more time-efficient than going to a gym.
Peloton, which sells a high-end stationary bike and virtual classes, had a banner year, and popular fitness startup Cubii told Insider that sales of its compact ellipticals have been booming since people started sheltering in place.
Products or services to improve the at-home workout experience could see an uptick in sales, and brands that provide a premium virtual experience will have an edge over those that don't.
Contactless food ordering and grocery delivery
Economic data show consumer spending in "food at home" categories has remained elevated over normal levels in the months since social distancing measures were broadly enacted.
According to Yelp, takeout and delivery surged 350% relative to reservations for dining in, and ghost kitchens are popping up everywhere.
Nick Green, the CEO and cofounder of grocery delivery service Thrive Market , told Insider the pandemic accelerated the adoption of online grocery shopping.
"In February, 5% of Americans bought groceries online; in March, 35% did. Even if half those people go back, we're likely to see a 4x increase in online grocery shopping in the 'new normal,'" he said.
Concierge personal services
If any business category has been the center of attention during the debate over reopening businesses, it's hair and nail salons.
Beauty services will most certainly look very different going forward, says entrepreneur and lawyer Joleen Hughes.
Hughes talks to a wide range of entrepreneurs for her podcast, and told Insider she's seeing an opportunity for in-home services and concierge businesses at a more negotiable price point.
In-home services from nail technicians or hair stylists would "open up a whole other door to a different type of experience," she said.
Auto mechanics
New car sales keep getting hammered between last year's supply issues and this year's chip shortages.
That means people will need to make their current cars last longer, and that will call for skilled service and repair technicians to keep the wheels turning.
Auto repair businesses are also generally easy to stay socially distant in order to protect workers and customers.
Online retail
The pandemic accelerated the death of brick and mortar retail stores; ecommerce will be tantamount to the malls and outlets of decades passed. America witnessed its largest shift in consumer values since the Great Depression, according to an analysis by Zeno Group.
By Shopify's projection, ecommerce is expected to nearly double by 2023 to more than $6.5 billion. Last holiday season, more consumers shopped online earlier to avoid pandemic-induced shipping delays. The increase of curbside pickup options during could reinforce the popularity of "buy online, pick-up in-store."
The platforms to sell products online will only multiply, whether through building an ecommerce website, marketing on social media, or connecting with customers over livestreams.
Telehealth services
Even before the pandemic, telehealth services were becoming more common.
Now, necessity is finally opening up new opportunities in telemedicine for doctors, physical therapists, dentists, mental health, and even pharmacists.
Doctors expect pent-up demand for delayed services to come roaring back after the pandemic.
Meanwhile, shuttered stores originally positioned for retail may be repurposed into medical office spaces .
Ara Katz, cofounder and co-CEO of microbiome company Seed, told Insider that investors will be well-positioned to take on health and science industries.
"This pandemic has revealed the underinvestment in and deprioritization of science, as well as the critical importance of its communication," she said.
Wedding and event planning
After months of canceled weddings and events, people will look for new ways to host their birthdays, graduations, and weddings once it's safe to gather again.
Sarah Chancey, the founder of national wedding-planning brand Chancey Charm, told Insider that postponed weddings will lead to the busiest fall her company has ever seen.
Her planners continue to plan and consult brides through their online portal and virtual design studio, an advantage they already had in place before the pandemic hit.
Author and speaker Julius Solaris says research out of Germany shows events will be more focused on small gatherings in multiple locations, rather than large, central gatherings.
Education technology and tutoring services
Education has a major disruption on its hands.
New education companies will set themselves apart by simplifying access to online training and credentialing, homeschooling resources, and virtual tutoring.
A Deloitte survey found 75% of teachers believe digital learning will replace printed textbooks by 2026, and a NewSchools-Gallup survey of the PreK-12 public school system found that 65% of teachers are using digital learning tools to teach every day, and 87% are using it at least a few days per week.
Bicycles
Cycling got a lot more popular in 2020.
Some riders saw it as a way to get exercise, while others simply wanted a way to get around town. Both scooped up new and used bikes in record numbers.
Sales spiked in April to about $1 billion, nearly double the typical level, according to the market research company NPD Group.
Eric Bjorling, the Trek's director of brand marketing, called it "the biggest boom the cycling industry has ever experienced."
Bike shops in New York and New Jersey also saw a jump in sales and repair orders when they got added to the list of essential businesses.
Pet training and care
Pet adoption surged last year.
More than one third of consumers surveyed by Bank of America in September said they adopted a pet in the last six months, and the bank expects that trend to continue.
With the increase in new fur-babies, consumers are looking for ways to train or care for their new family members.
Some professionals offer virtual sessions, providing advice or guidance on common issues like housebreaking, while brick-and-mortar establishments have reopened to provide daycare or boarding. And did we mention treats, toys, and other supplies?
What's more, dog walking services will be vital for working professionals who are returning to the office.
Plant care and flower delivery services
When the pandemic forced individuals inside, many sought the comfort of succulents and home gardening.
House plant startup the Sill reported a 50% increase in sales between April and March while gardening resource company ScottsMiracle-Gro reported that sales reached $748.6 million, a new record in the first fiscal quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, flower delivery services also saw a bump.
Customers who couldn't convene with loved ones sent flowers instead, finding a way to bridge the socially distanced gap during the pandemic. Floral retailer 1-800-Flowers reported record revenues and profits in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2020 — total net revenue jumped by 61.1% to $418 million.